CASE II – FORECASTING
The owner of a small grocery store (Bakala) in Salmiya is interested in deciding if he needs to
hire another employee to be able to cope with the increasing number of deliveries. In Particular,
he gathered 3 years’ worth of data on number of deliveries as shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Number of Deliveries
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Yr 1 Yr 2
204 234
213 231
203 227
209 233
226 238
212 227
218 245
232 226
239 222
212 232
237 226
217 232
Yr 3
230
231
229
234
245
234
254
237
245
249
246
260
Your team is responsible for finding the best forecasting method, where the latter should have
the ability to be updated with every future demand point.
Case Report
Perform an analysis of the number of deliveries for the Bakala. Prepare a report for the owner
that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
1. A graph of the time series.
2. Choose an appropriate method for forecasting, and report the MAD.
3. Forecast sales for year 4.
4. Recommendations as to when the system that you developed should be updated to
account for new deliveries data that will occur.
5. Detailed calculations of your analysis in an appendix to your report.
P.S. Both Excel File and Word report should be submitted.
