Chicago Air Express has decided to offer direct service from Islip to Chicago. Management must decide between a full price service using the company’s new fleet of jet aircraft and a discount service using smaller capacity commuter planes. It is clear that the best choice depends on the market reaction to the service Chicago Air offers. Management has developed estimates of the contribution to profit for each type of service based upon two possible levels of demand for service to Chicago: strong and weak. The following table shows the estimated quarterly profits ($1000s).
Service Full Price Discount
Strong $ 960 $ 670
Weak
$ -490 [Note: negative value!]
$ 320
Demand for Service
a. What is the decision to be made, what is the chance event and what is the consequence for this problem? How many decision alternatives are there? How many outcomes are there for the chance event?
b. If nothing is known about the probabilities of the chance of outcomes, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative and minimax regret approaches?
c. Suppose that management of Chicago Air Express believes that the probability of strong demand is 0.7 and the probability of weak demand is 0.3. Use the expectedvalue approachtodetermineanoptimaldecision.
